Vice President Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump across all national poll aggregators.
Since launching her campaign in recent weeks, Harris has seen largely positive poll results. Overall, the polls indicate she has closed the gap on Trump compared to when President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the race on July 21, was on the ticket.
According to RealClearPolitics, Harris is leading her Republican opponent by a marginal 0.2 points—47 percent to his 46.8 percent. It is the first time a Democrat has led in the race, according to the aggregator.
The vice president is also leading Trump by a 0.2 percent margin in VoteHub’s poll aggregator, which shows her with 46.4 percent of the vote to his 46.2 percent.
Meanwhile, The Economist’s poll aggregator shows Harris with 47 percent to the former president’s 46 percent, while Race to the White House shows the vice president with 47.6 percent to Trump’s 46.3 percent.
Aggregator FiveThirtyEight and pollster Nate Silver show that Harris’ lead is larger.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is now 2 points ahead of Trump, with 45.5 percent to his 43.5 percent. Similarly, Silver’s model, which compiles the results of statewide polls and weights them based on reliability, shows Harris leading Trump with 45.7 percent to his 43.8 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
Silver’s model had shown Trump polling ahead of the Democratic candidate for most of July—including during the weeks immediately after Biden dropped out of the race, with Harris first leading Trump on July 31, according to data published on Sunday.
Despite Harris’ lead, the race is still close, according to Silver, who said Harris had a 50.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November and a 66 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
Last week, Silver gave Trump a 54.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Against Biden, his model had given Trump a 73 percent chance to win the election.
Race to the White House also shows Harris winning the Electoral College, as she leads Trump with 275 electoral votes to his 262. Last week, the results were flipped, with the aggregator showing the Democratic candidate with 256 electoral votes to the GOP’s 275.
A new CBS News/YouGov poll conducted between July 30 and August 2 found the two candidates tied in key battleground states and Harris leading Trump nationally by 1 point.
The poll surveyed 3,102 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Trump’s campaign dismissed the CBS News/YouGov poll on Sunday, accusing it of putting “a finger on the scale of polling to inflate results” for Harris.
