A new study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics projected that former President Donald Trump’s second-term policy proposals of mass deportations and massive tariffs on all foreign goods would do significant damage to the American economy.
As CNN reports, the study projected that Trump’s plans “would cause weaker economic growth, higher inflation and lower employment,” and that in some cases “the damage could continue through 2040.”
Among other things, the paper found that even in a best-case scenario Trump’s policies would send inflation shooting back upward to 6 percent by 2026, and by 2028 consumer prices would be 20 percent higher than what they are today.
In a worst-case scenario in which Trump’s tariffs spark an international trade war, the paper finds that “employment would be 9 percent lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3 percent by 2026.” What’s more, gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, would be nearly 10 percent lower as a result.
The most damaging aspect of Trump’s proposals, said researcher Warwick McKibbin, would be the mass deportations Trump has pledged to carry out of undocumented immigrants, which he said would cause a supply shock to food prices.
“Can you imagine taking 16 percent out of the labor force in agriculture?” McKibbin asked rhetorically. “And unless you let them back in, you will have a permanent loss of supply.”
What’s more, the researchers said that Trump’s plan to make America rich by taxing foreigners “does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world.”
