President Joe Biden’s performance at the 2024 presidential debate against Donald Trump is not damaging the president as much in the polls as originally feared, although he has still lost some ground.
Biden’s languishing performance at the June 27 CNN debate caused panic within the Democratic Party. The 81-year-old president already faces concerns that he is too old to run for a second term in office.
There have been increasing suggestions that another Democratic candidate might be needed to prevent Trump from reentering the White House. Texas Representative Lloyd Doggett became the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call on Biden to end his 2024 campaign, with others saying they are accepting Biden is on course to lose November’s race.
However, polling experts have noted that multiple surveys taken before and after the CNN debate suggest that Biden has not lost a dramatic amount of ground to Trump in what is still essentially a neck-and-neck race between the pair.
On Wednesday, an Ipsos/Reuters poll of 1,070 adults showed that Biden and Trump are tied on 40 percent with four months to go until the election. The same post-debate poll suggested that 32 percent of Democrats believe Biden should end his reelection bid.
A previous Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted in mid-June had Trump ahead by two points (41 percent to 39), meaning there has been a two-point swing toward the president even after his worrying debate performance.
Former pollster Adam Carlson compiled the results of seven surveys taken before and after the CNN debate, including the two Ipsos/Reuters polls. Carlson found that even though Trump led in all but one, Biden managed to gain ground in terms of margins in three of them.
Two CNN/SSRS surveys, conducted in April and after the debate, also show there was no post-debate change, albeit with Trump six points ahead (both 49 percent to 43).
The seven post-debate surveys show that Biden’s numbers fell by an average of one point, whereas Trump’s numbers have not changed at all.
“I would rather trust numbers — even ones inherently prone to various types of error — than pundits’ and political journalists’ takes. But maybe that’s just me,” Carlson posted on X, formerly Twitter, while sharing the data.
“I’m sure everyone will be completely calm and rational when the post-debate New York Times/Siena poll eventually comes out,” he added in reference to what 538 consider the most accurate political pollster in the country.
538’s national polling average tracker also suggests Biden’s reelection chances haven’t collapsed in terms of post-debate polling.
On June 27, Trump was ahead of Biden on average by just 0.2 points (41.1 percent to 40.9 percent). As of July 2, Trump’s lead has extended to 1.6 points, with Biden’s numbers down 0.7 points (41.8 percent to 40.2).
Lakshya Jain, of election analysis website Split-Ticket, said the average shift away from Biden is currently “quite small” but the president’s candidacy may be severely damaged because Democrats are “panicking about the implications.”
“It gets untenable for Biden if this level of panic continues, and fast,” Jain posted on X. “Because the dam starts breaking and Dem elites start calling for him to exit. That’s not grounded in polling, though — it’s really about the fears of what the implications are.
“I think the panic isn’t unfounded, honestly — it’s because up until now, a bunch of them thought the State of the Union Biden was what he’d always be like, meaning he could campaign strongly,” Jain said in a separate post. “If he can’t, they’re worried the implications could be massive.”
Similarly, the suggestions that Trump may also see a collapse in the polls after he became the first president to be convicted of a crime also failed to materialize.
Trump was found guilty of 34 felony falsifying business records on May 30 by a jury in his New York hush money trial. Since then, polls have been split as to whether Trump’s conviction has hindered or helped his chances of beating Biden in November.
Trump’s team is hoping to have his hush money conviction overturned in the wake of the Supreme Court’s landmark immunity decision, citing evidence used in the trial.
