Donald Trump has said that he is leading in “almost all of the REAL Polls” despite many top polling companies showing Vice President Kamala Harris as the election front-runner.
In a post on Truth Social, the former president said his 2024 White House bid is “thus far my best” and that he will beat Harris in November.
Trump cites polling numbers to back up the claim, but most polling companies that have the former president leading tend to favor Republican candidates or are considered unreliable or inaccurate by influential polling aggregation and forecasting website FiveThirtyEight.
Those polls include Rasmussen Reports, which gave Trump a 5-point lead over Harris in a recent survey (49 percent to 44 percent). In March 2024, FiveThirtyEight dropped Rasmussen from its list of usable polling companies for failing to meet its standards, reported The Washington Post.
By comparison, polling firms considered among the most accurate by 538, including YouGov, Marquette Law School Poll, and Marist, all show Harris beating Trump in recent surveys. FiveThirtyEight also has Harris beating Trump on average in national surveys by more than 2 points (45.7 percent to 43.4 percent) as of August 11.
“I’m doing really well in the Presidential Race, leading in almost all of the REAL Polls, and this despite the Democrats unprecedentedly changing their Primary Winning Candidate, Sleepy Joe Biden, midstream, with a Candidate, Kamala Harris, who failed to get even a single Primary Vote, and was the first out of 15 Democrat Candidates to quit the race,” Trump wrote.
“I did great in 2016, and WON, did much better in 2020, getting many millions more votes than ’16, but this, 2024, is thus far my best Campaign, the most enthusiasm and spirit, etc.
“My team is doing a great job despite the constant 8 year obstacle of dealing with the Fake News and low self esteem leakers. We are going to WIN BIG and take our Country back from the Radical Left Losers, Fascists, and Communists. We will, very quickly, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trafalgar Group, which FiveThirtyEight gives an accuracy rating of 0.7 out of a maximum of three stars, released polls on Friday showing Trump is beating Harris in the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
By comparison, a Sunday survey from The New York Times/Siena College—ranked by FiveThirtyEight as the most accurate pollster—showed Harris beating Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan by 4 points across each state.
A recent CNBC/All-America Economic survey of 1,001 U.S. adults showed that Trump is ahead of Harris by 2 points (48 percent to 46 percent).
Elsewhere, the most recent poll from Marist—the sixth most accurate polling company, according to FiveThirtyEight—showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 48 percent).
An August 7, survey from Marquette Law School Poll, the third most accurate pollster, revealed Harris with a 4-point lead among registered voters (52 percent to 48 percent) and a 6-point lead among likely voters (53 percent to 47 percent).
Harris also led Trump in a poll from The Economist conducted by YouGov, the 4th most accurate polling company, by 2 points (45 percent to 43 percent). Harris also beat Trump by 2 points in a previous Economist/YouGov poll conducted the previous week.
Newsweek reached out to Trump’s campaign team via email for comment.
The same day as the polling post, Trump sparked mockery after he spread a conspiracy theory that the crowds at Harris’ recent campaign rally in Detroit were fake.
“Has anyone noticed that Kamala CHEATED at the airport? There was nobody at the plane, and she ‘A.I.’d’ it, and showed a massive ‘crowd’ of so-called followers, BUT THEY DIDN’T EXIST!” Trump wrote.
“She was turned in by a maintenance worker at the airport when he noticed the fake crowd picture, but there was nobody there, later confirmed by the reflection of the mirror like finish on the Vice Presidential Plane.”
There is no evidence that Harris manipulated images of her crowd, with multiple photos and videos showing the size of her supporters in the key swing state.
In response, Harris’ campaign team posted on X, formerly Twitter: “1) This is an actual photo of a 15,000-person crowd for Harris-Walz in Michigan.
