New York Times reporter Francesca Paris earlier this month noted that “new voter registration data” in Pennsylvania and North Carolina — both battleground states — proves that Vice President Kamala “Harris’ candidacy has energized potential Democratic voters.”
Paris emphasized, “For nearly the entire year, more people had been registering as Republicans than as Democrats when signing up to vote in” the two states, which “use party registration and that release this data regularly.”
On Wednesday, Tom Bonier, with the data firm Target Smart, shared new numbers with CBS News’ Major Garrett, according to Mediate.
“We’re tracking something really interesting right now — it’s a surge in voter registration in key groups ahead of the November election,” Garrett said. “Among young Black women, registration is up more than 175%. You heard that right. More than 175% in 13 states. That’s compared to the same time in 2020. This, according to the data firm Target Smart, registration has also increased among young Latinas and Black Americans.”
Garrett then asked Bonier, “Could that possibly be right? If you must have triple-checked this or many more times than that.”
The data expert replied, “You’re right to repeat the number because I more than triple-checked it. It’s incredibly unusual to see changes in voter registration that are anywhere close to this. I mean, there might be 175% is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group. You just don’t see that sort of thing happen in elections normally.”
Responding to the question of what the increase says about voter “enthusiasm,” Bonier said, “Tells us a lot. The reason that we look at this voter registration data is because the polls will only tell us so much. The polls tell us how people are going to vote. They don’t tell us if or who is going to vote. It’s a big question.
He emphasized, “The best indicator of that is the actions that people are taking. Number one, registering to vote. Someone who says, I want to participate in this election. And so as we’ve seen these questions of which side has the advantage and intensity and enthusiasm, we look for changes in voter registration like this. People who are newly registered to vote are much more likely to vote on Election Day.”
